This spring has been a busy one. My first day of live baseball was 1/26. Since then, I have seen 11 D1 college programs and attended 17 baseball events, including scrimmages, games and showcases. This isn’t meant to be braggadocious. It’s intended to underscore the fact I have seen a fair amount of D1 players YTD, and there have been a number of excellent hitters among them. These “kids” are possible top 5 round MLB draft picks: Jimmy Herron, Johnny Aiello, Carlos Cortes. They are very good players, but none of them were on par with Duke’s Griffin Conine.
For lack of a better idiom, he’s “A dude off the bus” as coined by the Up and In Podcast. You might be asking yourself, what the h*** does that even mean? It’s a guy who catches your attention almost immediately due to his physique. Conine’s massive pecs bulge out of his shirt. He simply LOOKS LIKE an athlete and passes the eye test. He’s an incredibly strong kid and has clearly put in serious work in the weight room. Conine hits the ball with authority, much harder than any of his D1 contemporaries I have seen.
Although his strength is impressive, it is not Conine’s defining characteristic as a baseball player. Scouts and teams alike should be wondering how he was able to slug .546 last year in one of the best D1 conferences, while maintaining a strikeout rate of 16.72%. It’s also worth noting, he walked in 15.24% of his plate appearances, otherwise expressed as a 41 to 45 BB:K ratio. I try to avoid scouting the stat line, but these numbers say a lot. Considering his power output, he rarely strikes out, makes pitchers come into the zone and punishes them when they do. The stats are sexy, but the (multi-) million dollar question is, “How will this production translate to pro ball?” In an attempt to answer it, let’s examine his hitting mechanics by comparing them to active major league players.
This was an arduous process. Step one: open the Fangraphs 2017 Leaderboard. Step two: search for open-faced swing for given player on YouTube. Step three: compare swing to Conine’s swing. Step four: repeat 100 times. That’s right, folks. I looked at a hundred major league swings and compared each of them to Griffin Conine’s swing. Two players’ swings stood out as having similar characteristics: Jay Bruce and Corey Seager.
As a companion piece, I highly recommend reading Ryan Parker’s (Twitter: @RA_Parker) Baseball Prospectus article, RP BP Article, in which he explains hitting mechanics and breaks swings into components. Parker defines and elaborates on each phase, which I will touch on below.
Jay Bruce had the most similar base stance to Griffin Conine. Both start with their hands hands high, back elbow parallel to the ground, and legs fairly wide apart. Both bend their back knee, although Conine’s bend is more pronounced. Another difference is Bruce’s front foot is bent back slightly facing home.
At the gather phase hitters rock back for momentum before coming forward to attack the ball. Both guys shift their weight to their back leg and start to lower their hands. Conine’s shift is very slight. He barely moves back at all. Interestingly, Bruce raises his elbow as he dips his hands. I think this adds length to his swing but also results in an uppercut path that generates significant power. Bruce also has a larger leg kick than Conine, whose lower body is quieter and more controlled.
After the gather, hitters move their weight forward as their hands move into a ready position. There seem to be more similarities between Corey Seager and Griffin Conine after the gather phase. Conine’s lower body movements closely mirror Seager. They are very subtle. Both rock back slightly to their back foot before they come forward in a controlled manner. Conine starts his hands high and Seager starts his hands low, but they both slowly shift their elbows to a point where they are level with their shoulders. Bruce, on the other, hand maintains a high elbow even as he begins the approach.
Slot, Then Foot Strike:
As noted in Ryan Parker’s article, “the slot” is characterized by the back elbow being more or less level with the back shoulder. Slotting refers to a hitter’s hands. It’s the moment before a hitter’s hands begin to move forward toward the mound and into the hitting zone. By the slot position, Conine is very similar to Seager. Both are approaching foot strike and their hands are similarly positioned. The only real difference is the right/bottom arm. Seager’s is parallel to the ground and Conine’s is “angled up”. This would result in more of an uppercut for Conine, which may be the only remaining similarity I can see to Jay Bruce.
In Parker’s article, he also mentions the importance of the slot’s timing and relative to foot strike. Conine slots well before his foot strike. His center of mass stays back. This enables him to utilize his full body as he brings the bat forward through the hitting zone. It may explain how he is able to generate big power out of a relatively “quiet swing”. His power looks to be generated by upper body strength more than his lower body, which is especially quiet.
Barrel Enters Zone:
Not sure what to say here. These look like carbon copies, no?
I have a couple of observations here. First, Corey Seager rolls over his front foot after contact. I am not sure what purpose this serves, but I noticed Carlos Gonzalez does the same thing. Second, Seager’s lower body looks to be more involved than Conine’s.
In summation, I see a swing that incorporates aspects of Jay Bruce and Corey Seager. Conine’s stance and high hands through the slot position result in an uppercut swing that should generate power. The way he keeps his weight back through hand slot also suggests he’ll be able to hit for power. At the same time, the ease of his lower body movements result in a smooth, repeatable swing. I believe his upper body strength coupled with the fluidity of his lower body will allow him to hit for power while maintaining consistent contact. This is a unique swing with a controlled violence that reminds me of few other players.
The photos/video of Jay Bruce and Corey Seager were trimmed from YouTube videos. The Bruce video was courtesy of Walt Hilsenbeck. You can find him on Twitter @HilsFilms. His YouTube account has an immense amount of baseball content too. Check it out here! Walt Hilsenbeck YouTube. The Seager video was from rkyosh007. Please check out his YouTube account too. rkyosh007 YouTube