San Diego Padres Camp Notes

MacKenzie Gore (LHP) – Let’s play a game of word association. Mackenzie Gore….Balance. Athleticism. Projection. Gore encapsulates these words in human form. Watching him live, it’s easy to forget he was a 2017 draft pick and surreal to think this kid was in high school last year at this time. Seeing Gore on 3/10, it was hard not to draw comparisons to prep lefty Matthew Liberatore who I had seen a few days earlier. About one year apart in age, Gore proved to be lightyears ahead in terms of his development.

At 6’3″ 180 lbs, there’s undoubtedly room for some good weight. The fastball already sits 93-94 with command that is advanced beyond his years. His three secondary offerings: a high 70s curve, a mid 80s change, and a mid 80s slider all project to be average over better. It’s no wonder I have heard 70 OFPs thrown on Gore in unhushed tones. Expect him to move quickly, especially for a high school draftee. Not that I am adding anything new, but if they are not already, it’s time for Padres fans to get excited. There is bona fide ace potential here.

Adrian Morejon (LHP) – It’s really an embarrassment of riches over at Padres camp in Peoria. One day after taking in MacKenzie Gore (3/14, 3/15), I had the pleasure of seeing Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon. He’s listed at 6’0″ 165, but I think he’s closer to 5’11”. Some believe his fastball will play down due to poor extension and his diminutive frame. I saw a natural cutting action that I believe will counteract this and allow the pitch to play to plus. It was 93-95. Additionally, his fastball/changeup combo is the best I have seen all year. The change rested in the 81-83 range with big, late depth. Hitters looked helpless distinguishing it from his fastball and the velocity differential left many hitters stabbing weakly out in front of it. His arm speed and release point for both pitches looked identical. There was a lot of swing and miss on the change, around six or seven in only three innings. It projects to a 70. The curve was mixed in less frequently, but it had a sharp, tight shape. There’s potential for three plus pitches (60 FB, 70 CHG, 60 CB) and a number two ceiling is well within reach.

Cal Quantrill (RHP) – The 8th overall pick in 2016’s draft, Quantrill has been among the most divisive prospects among evaluators I have spoken with. On 3/16, he had the look of a back-end starter. His fastball was low 90s, touching 93 with moderate sink and some run. I think it plays down due to poor extension. The change was his best secondary, mostly in the 79-82 range with quality depth. Quantrill had good feel for it and was adept at using it as a put-away pitch. The slider was low to mid 80s and hung up in the zone far too often, a flaw that would be fatal at the highest level. At times it played to above average but not with any reliability. Lastly, but perhaps most notably, Quantrill threw a handful of high 80s two-seam fastballs, a pitch he has been experimenting on. At present it looked fringey to average, but it’s something to watch out for. This is hardly a novel idea, but whether or not Quantrill can develop a viable third pitch will go a long way in determining his effectiveness as a starter.

Dauris Valdez (RHP) – A towering 6’8″ 221 lb righty, Valdez thew one inning in a 3/16 minor league game. His fastball sat 96-98 and touched 99. There is some crossfire action in his delivery and natural plane due to his height. Valdez threw exclusively from the stretch in this outing. His control was below average but the stuff was good enough to cover up for it; at times Valdez missed his spot within the zone but did not get punished for it. He leaned heavily on the fastball but also busted out a mid 80s slider. Having only seen it once, it’s difficult to slap a grade on it. But it looked to be an effective offering, perhaps even 60 grade. The release point and arm speed for his slider were difficult to distinguish from his fastball. There’s some effort in the delivery but when said player is comfortably high 90s, who cares? Valdez has the look of a high-leverage pen arm with a chance to close pending the utility of his secondaries.


Quick Hits:

  • Esteury Ruiz (2B/SS) – I have not seen a lot of Ruiz, but my first impression was he has surprising power for his size. He hit an impressive opposite field home run on 3/16, and it should surprise no one if he makes a meteoric rise on prospect lists this year.
  • Miguel Diaz (RHP) – Acquired via trade as a part of the the 2016 Rule 5 draft, Diaz is a straight fireballer. On 3/10, he sat 95-97 and touched 99. It’s worth noting four days later his fastball looked more effective at a lower velocity band, sitting 93-95 and touching 97. There’s little effort in the delivery considering how hard he throws. His changeup and breaking ball flashed above average but were both inconsistent and left up in the zone at times. Diaz has high-leverage bullpen potential.
  • Jeisson Rosario (CF) – In a 3/14 intrasquad game, Rosario made an excellent diving catch in right-center, showing off plus range and a good jump to reach a ball few other guys can get to. Later on in the same intrasquad game, I timed him 4.11 seconds home to first from the left, a solid 60 speed grade.

Jeisson Rosario

  • Tirso Ornelas (OF) – An 18-year-old outfield prospecting hailing from Tijuana, Mexico, Ornelas launched a majestic home run off of Angel Acevedo in a 3/14 intrasquad game. It was an easy, aesthetically pleasing swing. Consider my interest piqued.
  • Cole Rutherford (1B) – The older brother of White Sox prospect Blake Rutherford, it wasn’t too surprising to learn he was a college signee out of Cornell. I say not too surprising because he looked more mature/polished than his comPadres (zing, had to do it!) who partook in BP on 3/16. Rutherford has legitimate 60 raw power.

 

Oakland Athletics Camp Notes

Dairon Blanco (OF)  – An under the radar Cuban signee from last December, the 24-year-old may be a quick mover through the Athletics system. In my viewings he played center field and had excellent ABs against quality competition. On 3/7, he faced Blake Treinen and Chris Hatcher, both of whom allowed doubles to Blanco. He has shown an ability to protect the zone/lay off major league caliber breaking pitches and a quick stroke that should limit his strikeouts. His swing is simple, short and there is no wasted motion. It is fairly linear and his BP did not reveal much power, but I am came away impressed regardless. It is worth noting, in 2015/2016 his final season in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, Blanco only struck out in 11.29% of his plate appearances despite being 6.6 years younger than the average age. Speed is also a big part of Blanco’s game. I clocked him 4.24 seconds home to first on a double. A straight home to first of 4.25 from the right side is above average speed. Considering my time was on a turn, it’s 65 bordering on 70 speed. More viewings are needed to determine defense/arm grades, but Blanco the hitter appears capable of rapid ascent through the minors. I am curious to see where Oakland starts him.

Nick Allen (SS) – Small of stature, large of #want, the Athletics 2017 3rd round pick is listed at 5’9″ 155 which may be generous height-wise. I bumped into his H.S. English teacher, Nancy, and her son Jake who lauded Allen’s work ethic and unassuming nature. On the field, Allen looked like a potential starting shortstop. Defense will carry his profile. He’s quick and has good range. Infield actions were smooth. The arm is a 60. I do not have qualms over his ability to stick at the position. At the plate, his hands are quiet and his bat is quick through the zone. There is good bat control here as well as Allen displayed a propensity to foul off two-strike pitches and stay alive. In two viewings, he had three 10+ pitch ABs. Lack of loft in his swing and Allen’s physique limit his power potential, which should result in pitchers challenging him in the zone. He will have to prove he can make hard contact consistently enough to punish them. Given the aforementioned bat control and above average bat speed, I think he can. I see a ceiling of a second-division regular and a utility-infielder floor, but I am bullish on his chances of reaching his ceiling.

Lazaro Armenteros (OF) – One of the biggest names of 2016’s J2 signing period, Lazarito signed with the Athletics for $3MM. In A’s camp he displayed some tools that made him a coveted free agent, including 60 speed and above average raw power. Conversely, there were some concerning trends, notably off-balance swings versus breaking pitches. Armenteros does not appear to track breaking balls well out of the opposing pitcher’s hand. At times, his hips rotated early and his hands were left back, flailing at the ball. I was also not into his arm. In the 3/7 intrasquad, there was below average arm strength and discernible arc/poor carry on what should have been a max effort throw. I don’t want to kill him for these flaws. It’s easy to forget how young he is; 2018 will be his age 19 season. Still, they are concerning trends that should be monitored in his first exposure to full-season ball this year.

Miguel Romero (RHP) – This past fall I saw Romero five times in the Arizona Fall League and didn’t make much of him. In fact, I seemed baffled by what exactly he was throwing.

My abridged notes:

10/13 – 91-92, 79 CB?

10/17 – 90-91 (2 seam), 95-96 (4 seam), SL 82-84

10/26 – Loose arm, 91, 83?

11/2 – 92-94 SL 84-87 will pitch in on RHH

11/16 – 89-92 (easy) 79 CB

After seeing him twice this spring and overhearing Oakland’s coaches, I was able to understand my confusion. Romero throws a knuckle change in the 79-81 range. I have seen it move to either side with plus depth. Spin rate numbers were in the 900-1080 range for the pitch, which makes sense. Knuckleballs are notorious for having little spin. Those who frequent Baseball Savant spreadsheets will recognize these figures as being exceptionally low. For some context, the average fastball spin rate was around 2250 rpm and the average curve spin rate was around 2500 rpm (2017 figures). The pitch was jokingly referred to as “El Tigre”. Isn’t that cute? It was pretty nasty when commanded.

Romero also sat 94-95 and touched 96, which was an uptick from what I had typically seen in the AFL. The slider is a solid 60 when it’s on. It was 86-88 with nasty glove-side action in this viewing. The pure stuff is very good but the arsenal as a whole plays down due to command. From the looks of Romero’s Baseball Reference page, he appears to be a guy on the fast track for the bullpen. Oakland started him in the DSL in 2017 and moved him with a hop, skip and jump to the CAL league by season’s end. For a guy seemingly destined for the pen, Romero’s delivery is as easy as slicing fake butter with a katana. A part of me wishes they would give him a chance to start for that reason. Although I understand why Oakland would want to utilize him in a bullpen capacity.


Quick Hits:

  • Brett Siddal was the owner of the most impressive BP of the day on 3/9. He’s a strong kid with a pretty easy swing. He hit around 5 out, primarily to his pull side. It’s legitimate 60 raw.
  • Third baseman Will Toffey moved well to his right and displayed impressive arm strength in a fielding drill.
  • Dakota Chalmers sat 92-93, touched 94 with a mid 80s change, low 80s curve, and a mid 80s slider.  His curve looks like somewhat of a hybrid between a slider and curve with big horizontal movement. The stuff was impressive but command remained an issue.
  • Looking at Austin Beck’s swing, I see a lot of length. His hands slot high and must come down before he can bring the bat through the hitting zone. In spite of this length he didn’t have much swing and miss in 3/13’s scrimmage against the Cubs, suggesting he has solid bat control in an albeit limited look. Overall, I am still worried about the swing and would not be surprised if he is susceptible to considerable swing and miss this year.

Austin Beck.jpg

 

2017 AFL Most MLB Ready Hitters

There have been a lot of AFL top prospect list circulating cyberspace so I decided to do something a little different. This is my “AFL Most Major League Ready” list. In other words, if I were to assemble a team with the sole purpose of winning MLB games in 2018, these are the players I would select. Also considered players are in parenthesis. Performance in the upper minors and my belief in how likely current skills are to play at the major league level were heavily weighted/considered in my thought process.

  1. CF Victor Robles (Steven Duggar, Charlie Tilson)
  2. DH Francisco Mejia
  3. LF Ronald Acuna
  4. 3B Sheldon Neuse (Lucas Erceg)
  5. 1B Michael Chavis (Billy McKinney)
  6. RF Monte Harrison (Kyle Tucker, Eric Filia, LaMonte Wade)
  7. C Sean Murphy (Will Smith, Tomas Nido)
  8. 2B Luis Guillorme (Luis Urias, Thairo Estrada)
  9. SS Nicky Lopez (Luis Guillorme, Kevin Kramer)

CF – For a fleeting second I thought about Steven Duggar and Charlie Tilson. The latter was among the most polished players in the AFL, but I wonder whether he’s good enough to be more than a fourth OF. The former brings a nice power-speed combo to the table, but there are some holes in the swing. I think we’re looking at a 25% K rate guy who will draw walks, hit for some power, and does enough to be an above average offensive CF.

Having said that, Robles was the clear choice. Since you are reading this I do not think I need to elaborate much. 70 speed, 70 arm, 60 defense, and 60 hit is not much of a stretch. Last season he had a cup of coffee in the majors and spent over a month in AA. In 2018 after a couple of months of procedural service time manipulation, we should see him in the majors.

DH – Since Francisco Mejia only played 3B and DH this fall, I am slotting him in at DH. He would have been the obvious choice at catcher otherwise.

LF – Ronald Acuna

3B – My man crush on Sheldon Neuse grew over the course of the fall. It apexed when I saw him play a passable short on two occasions. He has a plus arm and plays above average defense at third. At the plate he has good strike zone awareness and utilizes a mostly contact-based, opposite-field approach. Having said that, he is also capable of dropping his back shoulder and tapping into his power to all fields at opportune times. There wasn’t much debate in my mind that he is the third baseman I want on this team. Lucas Erceg warranted some thought due to some eye-popping tools. The arm is ridiculous and he showed off prodigious power. Overall, he was less impressive than Neuse, especially at the plate.

1B – The options at first base did not blow me away (cue Shania Twain “That Don’t Impress Me Much”). I ended up settling on Michael Chavis, a pseudo first baseman. Chavis looked below average defensively at third despite his plus arm. I think a move across the diamond is inevitable. I expect Chavis to strike out a little more than his minor league numbers would suggest, but his raw power is 70 grade, and he does well getting to it in games. The power may be enough to carry his profile even at first. It’s worth noting that Chavis has been lauded for his workman-like, blue collar approach to preparation.

Shockingly only 22, Billy McKinney feels like somewhat of a post-hype sleeper. He’s already logged over 1000 PAs in AA and half a season at AAA. The power emerged last year and was on display in the AFL too. Compared to the other 1B options (Naylor, Bradley, etc) I think he would acquit himself well next season.

RF – With Acuna and Robles inked into two OF spots, and that left a few worthy outfielders for one remaining spot.

Astros prospect Kyle Tucker has tremendous bat speed, but he also has also swung and missed a lot this fall. Often times he looked like he just wanted to go home. I heard the Astros asked him to focus on getting more loft in his swing and told him not to worry about about strikeouts. Glancing at his Fangraphs page, the numbers bear this out. Regardless, I think he still needs more seasoning in the high minors. If he were to break camp with the Astros, it’s not hard to envision a long, strikeout-ridden slump at the MLB level.

Eric Filia has looked great this fall, frequently barreling baseballs to all fields and displaying an excellent ability to protect the zone. Extension of his 2017 full-season performance in the AFL has helped to allay concerns about his age. He put up a .362/.407/.434 slash with more walks than strikeouts in High-A, but at age 25 (7/6 birthday), he was old for the level. Unfortunately, he provides little game power. I was surprised to see he had a 3.4% HR/FB rate in the hitter-friendly confines of the Cal League. Defensively, he isn’t too flashy. It’s about average range and a fringey arm. With limited power and a middling defensive profile, there is a ton of pressure on the bat, but thus far he’s been doing it.

Another viable option is Twins OF LaMonte Wade. Like Filia, Wade is a guy who can use all fields and control the zone. He also walked more than he struck out last year. It’s worth noting Wade was about a year younger than Filia and played at AA Chattanooga, a more difficult level and a more pitcher-friendly park. At present, I think Filia is the better hitter, but not by a large margin. Wade has shown more ability to get loft, and Filia has more consistent gap power. Wade is the superior defender, projecting to be a roughly league average.

After lengthy consideration and mental tug-of-war, I landed on maybe the most obvious candidate, Monte Harrison. Filia and Wade appear “safer” and more ready offensively, but I found it hard to ignore Harrison’s tools. I think Harrison would have hefty swing and miss if he were thrust into a MLB lineup now but his skills would also shine through at times. The game power is legitimate, and he would run into some homers. His cyborg arm and overall plus athleticism would be an excellent fit in this hypothetical team’s RF corner.

C – Sean Murphy is a plus defender with a double-plus arm and a bat that could play to average. Will Smith and Tomas Nido were decent alternatives, but for me Murphy is a cut above. I wrote more about Murphy here: https://baseballbellcurve.com/category/teams/al-west/athletics/

2B – Luis Guillorme, Thairo Estrada, and Luis Urias all played full seasons at AA last year, which makes them appear equally qualified to make the jump to the big club. However, they have played 474, 375, 347 minor league games, respectively. Guillorme is two years older than Estrada and three years older than Urias. Guillorme would play the best second base defense among the three. Praise of his hands has been ubiquitous in baseball circles. He makes excellent plays on the periphery of his (albeit limited) range. All three players have question marks with regard to their game power and sported GB:FB ratios around 2:1. Urias has the consensus best bat among the three, but I am having trouble imagining major league success next year due to his lack of power. He’s a very difficult evaluation. What do you do with a 70 hit 20 power player? There’s a chance Urias takes a step forward next year and makes this paragraph look like utter nonsense, but I am not ready to bet on it. In the long term, he is the obvious selection. For 2018 alone, I would give a slight nod to Guillorme due to his defense and the uncertainty surrounding all of their bats. I have to admit this is the selection I feel least confident about.

SS – There was no infielder who elicited more adoration from scouts this fall than Nicky Lopez. He’s a slick defender with good hands and a plus arm. The bat speed is plus, and he can foul pitches off until he gets something he likes. It’s a mostly linear bat path with gap to gap power, but for a shortstop you are taking this alllll day. On top of it all, he has plus speed. The more I watched him, the more I thought every-day player. I considered Guillorme (who played both SS and 2B) due to his defense and overall polish, but the more I thought about it, the more I wondered whether Lopez was also the superior defender. The answer is yes. Besides, I had already used Guillorme to fill my second base spot. Pirates Kevin Kramer was given some consideration, but his carrying tool is his bat, and I have some qualms as to how it would play in MLB next season. The defense and overall package from Lopez feels like a safer bet.

 

 

2017 AFL Most Major League Ready Pitchers

There have been a lot of AFL top prospect list circulating cyberspace so I decided to do something a little different. This is my “AFL Most Major League Ready” list. In other words, if I were to assemble a team with the sole purpose of winning MLB games in 2018, these are the players I would select. Also considered players are in parenthesis. Performance in the upper minors and my belief in how likely current skills are to play at the major league level were heavily weighted/considered in my thought process.

Today I am posting about the pitchers. Hitters coming soon!

SP1 RHP Mitch Keller, SP2 LHP Max Fried, SP3 RHP Burch Smith, SP4 RHP Tyler Beede, SP5 LHP Justus Sheffield (Alec Mills, Elniery Garcia, TJ Zeuch, Walker Lockett)

RP1 RHP Sandy Alcantara, RP2 RHP Cody Carroll, RP3 RHP Dean Deetz, RP4 LHP Kirby Bellow, RP5 LHP Kyle Regnault  (Art Warren, Nolan Blackwood, Zac Houston, Gerson Moreno, Andres Munoz)

Starters:

Mitch Keller (RHP) Pittsburgh Pirates – This is an extremely polished pitcher. His fastball command was (probably) the best in the league. The curve command was wicked impressive. Keller can use it inside-outside and in-out (of the zone) at will. Keller’s change is not flashy, but it generated a lot of ground balls. I also noticed a high 80s pitch that moved glove side in a couple of Keller’s starts. I think it is a hard slider, but it may also be a cutter. He pitched with purpose and was able to change eye levels and sequence. It’s a well-rounded arsenal that should keep hitters off balance at the highest level.

Max Fried (LHP) Atlanta Braves – Scouts I have spoken with love Fried’s athletic delivery. His arm is sneaky-fast because his delivery starts slowly before catapulting home at full speed. The fast arm is great, but this attribute accentuates instances when his arm speed slows down. I believe these are semi-telegraphed offspeed pitches. In spite of this blemish, I think Fried has what it takes to perform in the majors. The fastball sat 92-94 and touched 95 with cut at times. His mid 80s change was not thrown much in my looks, but I have read it has plus potential. The high 70s curve is devastating when located. In limited action last year, he performed well in the majors making him a seasoned veteran on this list.

Burch Smith (RHP) Tampa Bay Rays – Somewhat of an under the radar guy, I only caught him once this fall but came away impressed. His motion was easy, and the delivery utilized his lower half well. I liked how he pitched with confidence. Smith mostly stayed in the zone and challenged hitters, especially early in counts. The fastball sat 92-95, and Smith seemed to leave a little in the tank for two-strike counts when he would amp it up to 96 or 97. His high 70s curveball missed a lot of bats. Smith tended to use it below the zone after fastballs up. The third offering was a changeup which was effectively mixed in. Arm injuries have derailed Smith’s career to date. If he can stay healthy, it shouldn’t shock anyone to see him in Tampa’s rotation next year.

Tyler Beede (RHP) San Francisco Giants – The depth of Beede’s repertoire stood out to me. I wish got to see more of him. I caught him on 10/31 when he went four innings. His fastball had three distinct variations. There was a mostly straight four-seamer around 93-94 (T95). There was a low 90s cutter that broke glove side late. And there was a low 90s sinker with decent drop and some armside fade. Beede also employed a slider in the low 80s, a curve in the high 70s and a change in the mid 80s. His offerings all had different velocity bands and moved in different directions. Beede peppers the lower third of the zone and strikes me as a pitch to contact guy who should have a high ground ball rate, eat innings, and occupy the back end of a rotation. With 109 AAA innings in 2017, he’s nearly a finished product.

Justus Sheffield (LHP) New York Yankees – I believe his three-pitch mix gives Sheffield enough to start every fifth day. My first looks at Sheffield were this fall. From what I gather, there has been an uptick in his velocity. He sat 93-95 and touched 97. His mid-upper 80s slider may be his best pitch. The changeup feel also exceeded my expectations. He was able to get ks on all three of his pitches, which bodes well for his future success. I think he could fit into the back end of a rotation now, but there is room for more if his changeup can improve to be a league average pitch. (Video of Sheffield also available on my YouTube station)

Other Starters Considered: I almost selected Alec Mills over Sheffield for the fifth spot. Based purely off prospect pedigree, it doesn’t seem like a fair comparison. For next season alone, it’s a lot closer than one may think. Mills doesn’t project to be much more than a fifth starter, but he’s already pitched extensively at AAA. He is the more polished guy right now. His fastball, curve, slider, and changeup all sink in different directions. He can get in trouble when pitches are left up, which results in a shellacking. To some degree, he relies on hitters getting themselves out, but he has a good feel for all his offerings and looks major league ready. Elniery Garcia and TJ Zeuch have more ceiling than Mills, but I would like to see them “do it” at higher levels. I feel like both are high floor (4th or 5th SPs) too. Lastly, Walker Lockett is a really interesting guy. His build is that of a prototype pitcher, 6’5” 225 lbs. This fall his slider (83-87) generated a lot of swing and miss. I was surprised to see he had only a 13% K rate in AAA last season, possibly the result of a rash of injuries including his shoulder, back, and finger. Granted it was only a limited sample, but 22 k in 25 IP this fall feels more indicative of his true talent level. This someone to keep an eye on.

Relievers:

Sandy Alcantara (RHP) St. Louis Cardinals – There are split opinions on whether Alcantara can remain a starter. The consensus seems to be he will move to the bullpen where his stuff can play up and his command deficiencies won’t matter as much. His fastball grazes 100 but doesn’t get as much swing and miss as you may expect, largely due to his poor command and hitters’ lack of respect for his breaking pitches. Having said that, there isn’t much doubt he can occupy a closer role which is perfect for me in this exercise. (Video of Alcantara also available on my YouTube station)

Cody Carroll (RHP) New York Yankees – I am fairly confident you could drop Carroll into a MLB pen next year, and he’d be fine. He uses a leg kick to create deception and has phenomenal stuff to boot. The fastball sits 95-98 and gets good swing and miss. Hitters do not pick it up well out of his hand. His high 80s slider has sharp two-plane break and is an excellent second pitch. His third pitch is a mid 80s splitter with quality drop. I think he will be a high leverage guy with a chance to close.

Dean Deetz (RHP) Houston Astros – Like a fine wine, Deetz grew on me over time. The stuff was always evident. A hard fastball touching 98 jumps off his hand. It’s pretty straight, but it’s hard enough to get swings and misses when located. His slider has nasty break, and he uses it to both sides of the plate or as a chase pitch. At times he will miss with it glove side, but the command is much better than I originally thought. His change isn’t bad either. It’s interesting to note, Deetz was primarily used as a starter in 2017. He walked an absurd 8.2/9 IP in 45 1/3 innings with AAA Fresno as a starter. A ratio of 4 BB in 11 innings as a reliever this fall was a monumental improvement. It looks like a switch to the pen was the panacea Deetz needed. I read Houston added him to their 40 man so it seems likely we will see him in the majors in sometime in 2018.

Kirby Bellow (LHP) Arizona Diamondbacks – Can we get some lefties up in here? Yes, yes we can. Bellow is one of my personal cheeseballs. I wrote about him in more detail earlier this fall. He had excellent command of his fastball and slider, often pounding the zone away against left-handed hitters. I was later surprised to see him on Jim Callis’ AFL best tools list in the “under consideration for best changeup” section. (http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260341206/afls-fall-stars-game-features-top-tools/) Bellow only allowed two hits to lefties in 2017 in over 60 plate appearances. *Promoter drops mic and exits the stage.* (Video of Bellow also available on my YouTube station)

Kyle Regnault (LHP) New York Mets – A 2012 Indy Ball signee out of the Canadian-American Association, Regnault is the walking personification of the cliche “To be greater than the sum of your parts”. His fastball is below average. The change and slider, average maybe? The curve, possibly plus? Add plus location and a willingness to pitch backwards and you get a pretty good pitcher. Regnault has been very effective at painting the bottom of the zone and below the zone in my looks. To satisfy my own selfish curiosity, I am pulling for him to get a shot in the Mets pen at some point next season.

Other relievers considered: There are very legitimate arguments to be made for Art Warren, Nolan Blackwood, and Zac Houston over Kyle Regnault and Kirby Bellow. All I saw Houston do out in AZ was shove. I think he will move quickly through the Tigers system. He’s a big guy with plus extension that helps his stuff play up. Blackwood has done things like strike out Francisco Mejia on three pitches, which made an indelible mark in my lobe. Warren’s fastball/slider combo was among the handful of best 1,2 punches I’ve seen in the AFL. Ultimately, all three were a little too far away to warrant selection (none appeared above High A). Padres’ Andres Munoz is even farther from the majors but had to be considered due to his elite stuff. Lastly, I love what I have seen from Gerson Moreno this fall, but right now his command needs some work.

 

 

11/13/17, 11/14/17 AFL Notes

AFL Notes 11/14/17

Monte Harrison (OF) Milwaukee Brewers – The term tool shed was made for guys like Monte Harrison. A college football recruit at Nebraska, he is a premium athlete. The speed, arm and power are all plus tools. I think Harrison best fits in right due to his arm. It’s an easy 60 maybe 70 from what I have seen this fall. I have Harrison 4.25 home to first, which is plus from the right side. Taking a glance at his Baseball Reference page, he stole 27 bases in 31 attempts last year. This leads me to believe he can read pitchers well and has base stealing acumen. At the plate, Harrison’s approach was somewhat erratic. At times he displayed good plate discipline, working counts by fouling off pitches and taking borderline balls. At other times, he expanded the zone by chasing fastballs up or a breaking pitches down and away. I think there will always be some swing and miss in his game. I was talking to Derek Corr (Twitter: @dcorr82) who brought up the issue of Harrison’s hands when he swings. If you examine the swing, Harrison starts with his hands high and dips them as it begins. The bat speed is plus, but this extra motion adds length to his swing. Despite the swing and miss, Harrison gets to his power consistently in games. It’s easy plus power, generated mostly by his strong hands and quick wrists. Today he crushed a Henry Owens pitch opposite field (the open face home run in the video). I think Harrison has a first-division ceiling and a very good chance to be an every day player. Even if the hit tool lags, the compilation of other tools will buoy his overall profile.

AFL Notes 11/13/17

Estevan Florial (OF) New York Yankees – If Harrison is a tool shed, then I suppose that makes Florial a Home Depot.  I’ll be here all week. The tools are “you need earmuffs loud”, and one scout cited Florial as a top three prospect in the AFL. The speed is elite (70). I have a couple sub-four home to first times and a number at 4.10 or faster. He can reach full speed by his second step, which is really impressive. Defensively, center field is the most likely landing spot. It’s worth noting his arm is also plus. Offensively, there were some concerning trends. Florial has a lot of swing and miss, especially on breaking pitches down. Right now he doesn’t appear to recognize spin, but Florial just turned 20 on Small Business Saturday (11/25) and is relatively raw for his age having come out of Haiti. For this reason many scouts are not worried about him long term. Just don’t expect a rapid Acuna-esq ascent. I think there will be growing pains. Rumors have it he’s shown plus raw in BP, but I haven’t seen it materialize much in games. The bat speed is excellent and his swing has upward plane, neither of which explain his high groundball rate. I suspect poor timing is the culprit. When he does barrel, the results are impressive. It just hasn’t happened much in my looks. Hard contact on barrels combined with his speed should help Florial sustain abnormally high BABIPs, maybe in the .350s. Overall, the raw ingredients are here for a first-division player. As is often the case, utility of the hit tool will go a long way in determining his overall efficacy. I think it’s a potential 50 at maturity.  Having said that, he’s an admittedly difficult evaluation and a high variance player who is far from major league ready.

11/11/17, 11/13/17 AFL Notes

AFL Notes 11/13/17

Kyle Regnault (LHP) New York Mets – Left-handed command specialist is the best four-word phrase I could come up with to describe Regnault. His fastball is not overpowering, but it can be effective due to his array of secondary offerings. He can run the fastball arm side in on the hands of right-handed hitters or straighten it. Regnault’s best pitch is a high 70s curveball with two plane movement and hefty depth. He’ll throw it either at the bottom of the zone or as a chase pitch. The curve gets a lot of swing and miss. Regnault also employs a low 80s slider. It’s not as good as the curve, but it serves as an effective change of pace. The fourth option is a low 80s changeup that has moderate depth and fade. He seemed to reserve this pitch for lefties and would run it away from them. Regnault’s overall arsenal works because he is able to command all four offerings and keep them down in the zone. I think he is polished and ready for a shot at middle relief in the majors.

AFL Notes 11/11/17

Adam Choplick (LHP) Texas Rangers – After losing out to Hafþór Júlíus Björnsson in the casting process for Game of Thrones’ “The Moutain”, Choplick resorted to his backup plan, a baseball career. He is a massive human, listed at 6’9” 250. With his colossal frame and long arms, one might expect natural plus extension, but his use of a high three-quarters arm slot undermines it. On the other hand, his height and arm slot allow Choplick to pitch with significant downhill plane. I can see this having divergent effects on his fastball and curveball. His high 70s curveball already has quality depth, which is augmented by the plane. Hitters should swing over the top or make contact on the top of the ball, meaning lots of ground balls. Alternatively, plane on his 92-95 mph fastball should result in fly balls. I think hitters will gauge its downward angle and respond with an upward-sloping bat path, allowing them to keep their bat in the zone longer. The uppercut path should result in more fly balls.

The curveball has been Choplick’s most-used secondary offering, and he commands it well. I think the command combined with its aforementioned depth make it a plus pitch. His slider was serviceable but below average. Choplick used it inside to jam right-handed hitters. Choplick has posted excellent numbers in the minors but has also been older than league averages. Next season he will be more age-appropriate in the Texas League, which should be revealing. Overall, Choplick looks like a pen piece. I think the stuff falls short of a closer profile, but middle relief or setup are possible outcomes.