10/30/17 Arizona Fall League Notes

Mitch Keller (RHP) Pittsburgh Pirates – If we are doing AFL superlatives, I think best fastball command goes to Mitch Keller. Today he was surgical. The fastball ranged from 92-97. There was a three-pitch sequence to Thairo Estrada that stood out as an impressive display of command. Keller started with an 85 mph changeup at the bottom-middle of the zone for a swinging strike. Then, he went to the 97 mph heat at the top of the zone. He finished Estrada with a 92 mph fastball that was down and away. I found this to be impressive because Keller appeared to be deliberately changing the eye level of hitters to keep them off balance. The curve was also quite good. It ranged from 78-82, generating some swing and miss and weak ground balls. Keller could use it to both sides of the plate. He left one up to David Thompson, who was not able to take advantage, but for the most part Keller did a good job keeping the pitch down. Overall, it was a dominant outing that displayed what Keller is capable of. This is a polished pitcher who should get a shot in the Pirates rotation at some point next season.

I did not take any video today, but I recorded Keller in his 10/24 start.

Albert Abreu (RHP) New York Yankees – It would not be a stretch to argue that Albert Abreu has better pure stuff than Mitch Keller. The fastball sat 93-95, without much effort in the delivery. The curveball is already considered plus, and Abreu could get swinging strikes with it seemingly at will. It would drop off the table, and hitters swung over it. His changeup had more drop than fade. This pitch was effective largely due to Abreu’s arm speed, which remained constant for fastballs and changeups (1:07 on video). As a result, the timing of opposing batters was thrown off. A scout sitting behind me noted Abreu had more confidence in his offspeed pitches than his fastball. The fastball command was inconsistent. Whether or not Abreu figures this out will go a long way in determining his efficacy at the major league level.

 

 

10/25/17, 10/26/17 Arizona Fall League Notes

10/26/17 AFL Notes

Gerson Moreno (RHP) Detriot Tigers – Having the ability to touch high 90s with his heater, Moreno is viewed by many to be a future high-leverage reliever. Today the fastball was 95-97 with some natural cut. There have also been reports his fastball touches triple digits. I don’t want to sell the arm short, it’s impressive! In my opinion, the delivery is not a thing of beauty, and there is some effort to it. Moreno looks like he is “shot putting” the ball to home. Conversely, he has been athletic enough to repeat his delivery. A low 80s slider is his top secondary offering, and it is another potential plus pitch. He made Braves top prospect Ronald Acuna look bad with one today. The slider features mostly vertical drop, and Moreno commanded it well. From what I gather, Moreno’s command of the pitch has improved throughout the year. The arsenal rounds out with a mid 80s changeup. This pitch needs some work but should be effective if it can get to fringe average, largely due to the disparity in velocity between the change and fastball. Overall, this is a potential closer that Tigers fans should be excited about.

Michael Chavis (3B) Boston Red Sox – My views of Chavis have been a mixed bag. On 10/23, he played first base and scouts remarked, “I can’t believe this guy is a third baseman.” They did not like his range. Additionally, they commented on his subpar foot speed out of the box. The best home to first time I have for Chavis is 4.39 on a max effort play. It is 40 grade speed. At the plate, the swing and miss I have observed is a bit concerning. It strikes me as oddly incongruent with his .282 average and 21% K rate for the year. There are a couple of possible explanations here: 1) I am getting overly influenced by a small sample size of at bats (I have seen Chavis four times). 2) The swing and miss is the result of facing stiffer competition in the AFL. Honestly, I am unsure what to make of it.

On the positive side, the power is legitimate, and it should play in games. Chavis has a muscular build and is capable of hitting home runs to all fields, which bodes well for his likelihood of maintaining power at higher levels. Against Phillies prospect Elniery Garcia, he went opposite field for a HR, not even appearing to “get all of it”. Defensively, the arm is another a plus tool, worthy of a major league third baseman. Overall, I have tepid feelings about the profile, but I still think there is enough for him to be a second division regular.

Michael Chavis

Spray Chart Courtesy of MLBFarm.com

10/25/17 AFL Notes

Henry Owens (LHP) Boston Red Sox – This fall Henry Owens has revamped his delivery, which now utilizes a sidearm slot. It has not been a good look, today included. Scouts behind me murmured his delivery looks rigid. The fastball sat 87-89 and touched 90, and Owens did not appear to have confidence in the pitch. He worked more off of his changeup. It’s still a pitch that will generate decent swing and miss, but it plays down because hitters have no fear of the fastball. The changeup usage was high. I was not charting the game, but would wager Owens threw as many changeups as fastballs. The changeup and slider blended together for me. There was not a significant/discernible difference between them. It looked like opposing hitters were biding their time, waiting for a juicy fastball to attack. Owens’ discomfort was palpable when runners got on base. He would slow to a glacial pace. At one point, I timed a 78 second period between pitches (with no pickoff attempt). Once a top prospect, Owens looks lost. The operative questions are: Where does this leave him? And where does it leave the Red Sox?

10/23/17, 10/24/17 Arizona Fall League Notes

10/24/17 AFL Notes

Kevin Kramer (SS) Pittsburgh Pirates – It has been a popular baseball refrain in recent years that defensive range is becoming less important due to advent of the shift and defensive positioning. Kevin Kramer is the type of player who could benefit from this trend. I see a guy with an average or fringe average arm but quick transfers, smooth defensive actions, and solid hands. Various reports I have read view him as a guy who is likely to move to second base due to his lack of range. I am more optimistic on his odds of sticking at short. I think he has a chance to be a second division regular. The bat is better than most of his middle infield peers. He can protect the zone until the pitcher makes a mistake and then take advantage. The power is nothing to sneeze at either. I think it’s fringe average, which isn’t bad if he can stick at short.

10/23/17 AFL Notes

Luis Guillorme (2B) Mets – There has been a book on Guillorme in recent years. Great defense. Good bat to ball skills. Limited game power. And phenomenal hands. In my viewings this fall, I have seen nothing to dispel these evaluations. He made an excellent diving grab/throw in this game. He reminds me of Dustin Pedroia in some regards because his range is a tick below average, but anything within his range is essentially an automatic out. He will make eye-opening plays on the periphery of his range. Guillorme is a 40 runner. I have timed him around 4.4 from the left side. His universally lauded hands allow him to make frequent contact and limit his swing and miss. Despite the contact, his swing plane has remained flat, resulting in a lot of groundballs. With only two home runs in 2041 minor league plate appearances, it is hard to project him as any more than a bench guy and defensive replacement. The lack of power is not playable, especially in today’s homerun happy hitting environment. If he can make a change that results in better power output, he could be an everyday player. It just looks unlikely at this point because evaluators have been making similar comments regarding his swing plane for years.

10/19/17, 10/20/17 Arizona Fall League Notes

10/20/17 AFL Notes

Nolan Blackwood (RHP) Athletics – There is a lot to like about Blackwood. The 6’5” righty uses his frame to his advantage to achieve deception. He caught my eye in a previous outing when he made Francisco Mejia look ugly in a three-pitch strikeout. The fastball sits low 90s and is thrown from a sidearm angle. Hitters appear to struggle picking up the ball out of his hand, which helps everything play up. His change is in the low 80s, and both of the aforementioned pitches have quality sink. Today Blackwood also busted out a 75-77 mph curveball. It is a pitch he reserves for right-handed hitters. It was not used in his previous outing when he faced three lefties. I was muttering aloud trying to figure out who Blackwood reminds me of delivery-wise. A scout offered up Dan Otero as a comp.

10/19/17 AFL Notes

Yonathan Daza (OF) Rockies – I have seen Daza a few times this fall and have come away impressed each time. Daza is a plus runner posting home to first times around 4.2 from the right. He hits baseballs with authority, and I would love to see his Statcast exit velocity data. Looking at his Fangraphs page, I found he only hit three home runs in 569 plate appearances last year. His physique looks capable of more. Before the AFL ends I am shooting to catch a couple of his BP sessions and get a side look of his swing to gauge swing plane. Even if the home runs do not come, I think Daza is a high floor guy who should be at least a fourth outfielder. It is not hard to envision him launching gappers all over Coors Field.

 

10/16/17, 10/17/17 Arizona Fall League Notes

10/17/17 AFL Notes

Shedon Neuse (3B) Athletics – If the announcer at AFL games is correct, this guy’s name is pronounced “noisy”. Baseball Reference could neither confirm nor deny. Neuse has shown me a lot this fall. He makes frequent loud contact and tends to shoot baseballs opposite field into the right/center gap. He is capable of using all fields though. He has a good feel to hit and awareness of the zone. I think the power will play to average because the approach seems more contact-oriented than power-oriented. I have yet to see him in BP, but I suspect there is more raw in the bat than he has shown in games. Defensively, he does not have the look of a typical third baseman; he is short and stocky. However, I think the industry consensus is he can get the job done there. I was thinking he has an above average arm. Then, a scout informed me Neuse used to touch mid 90s as a pitcher so it’s probably plus. This is a guy I am in on as a possible every day regular. (10/25 Edit – Today Neuse played shortstop and looked good there! He made a solid play on a tough grounder and showed quick hands getting it to first. The athleticism is better than I originally thought.)

Graphic From MLBFarm.com

Sheldon Neuse_HeatMap

10/16/17 AFL Notes

Nicky Lopez (SS) Royals – The Royals made a shrewd selection when they took Lopez in the 5th round of the 2016 draft. He has the look of a second division regular. There are a lot of average or better tools in his proverbial box. Offensively, he can control the zone and foul off pitches until he gets one that he likes. In today’s game he was able to take a Sheffield slider oppo for a double. The bat control is real. Ex post facto, I wasn’t surprised to look at his fangraphs page and discover he only struck out in 9% of his plate appearances this season. One fair criticism is his swing plane will not generate much power. On the bases, I have seen him in the 4.15-4.20 range from the left side, which grades above average. He looks to be a capable defender at short as well.

10/13/17, 10/14/17 Arizona Fall League Notes

10/14/17 AFL Notes

Kirby Bellow (LHP) Diamondbacks – Bellow is a lefty who stands on the far right side of the rubber (hitter’s perspective) and pounds the opposite side of the plate with fastballs and curveballs. He was extremely predictable but effective nonetheless. Bellow’s fastball was mostly 90-91 but one touched 95. His curveball was high 70s and is probably his best pitch. It was generating a lot of swing and miss. When batters were able to make contact, it resulted in weak ground balls. He sparingly used a changeup around 83 as a weapon against right-handed hitters. His arm angle looks really tough on lefties. Curiosity got me, and I looked up his platoon splits. Last season in a 39 2/3 inning sample at AA-Jackson, RHH were held to a .654 ops and LHH were utterly dominated. They only had two hits in 61 plate appearances, resulting in a minuscule .098 ops. Bellow should excel as a LOOGY with the upside of a more conventional middle reliever.

(11/26 Edit – I learned that Bellow’s breaker is actually a slider not a curve as I wrote above.)

10/13/17 AFL Notes

Dean Deetz (RHP) Astros – I really liked Deetz’s three-pitch mix. It’s definitely worthy of a major league pen. His fastball sat 95-96 and touched 98, although it has been somewhat hittable in my viewings. His 83-85 slider had hefty two plane break, but his command of the pitch waivered. His change was 86-87, and he could spot it to both sides of the plate. Overall, the stuff was impressive, but the command was worrisome. I think Deetz a guy who could thrive in a middle relief role. I also think he’s a guy who could cause your favorite team’s fanbase a lot of stress in a high-leverage role, resulting in a myriad of prematurely balding heads.

10/11/17, 10/12/17 Arizona Fall League Notes

10/12/17 AFL Notes

DJ Snelten (LHP) Angels – Watching Snelten, I became fixated on his somewhat robotic delivery, which resembles a less extreme version of Alex Wood. He lifts his right leg to create deception as he shifts his center of mass forward toward the plate. Once everything is moving, his arm whips around from behind. His fastball is in the low 90s, and his second offering is a high 70s curveball. I think he profiles as an org guy.

10/11/17 AFL Notes

Scott Squier (RHP) Miami Marlins – The Marlins drafted Squier in 2014’s 16th round out of the University of Hawaii (Manoa). In a tweet I described Squier as a “kitchen sink guy”, which is quickly becoming one of my favorite cliches. There seem to be a lot of guys like this. They don’t have overpowering stuff, but they can keep hitters off balance by attacking with an array of pitches at different velocity bands and movements. The fast ball is fringey. It sits 90-92 and sometimes can get to 93. His slider is in the low 80s and may be his best pitch. The curve was 72-75 and was maybe a 45. On separate days I wrote in my notes “85 change (moves arm side)” and 88 “(2seam? moves arm side)”. It’s unclear to me whether or not these are different pitches. Either way, this feels like a swingman profile that will probably bounce back and forth from AAA to the majors and serve as organizational depth.

Miguel Del Pozo (LHP) Miami Marlins – Del Pozo primarily threw fastballs in this game. It was in the low 90s with a cutting action that ran in on RHHs that should result in some weak contact. Del Pozo also showed a curve in the high 70s that looked roughly average.