2017’s Least Aggressive Base Stealing Teams

If you have not read my former post, 2017’s Most Aggressive Base Stealing Teams, I would recommend doing so before moving forward.

2017’s Most Aggressive Base Stealing Teams

Much like the previous post, I am beginning my look at the least aggressive teams with a high-level inspection of their aggregate stolen base rates ((SB+CS)/SBO)). These figures were downloaded from Baseball Reference. Light red represents one standard deviation below average and dark red represents two STDs.

Team Att per SBO Not Aggressive

Baltimore was dead last each of the past three years! On its own that would not be worrisome, but in conjunction with their notorious aversion for foreign signees, it becomes a concern. The below link to Baseball America from last July sums it up. They were the only team to abstain from acquiring a single player during last year’s J2 International Singing Period. It has to make you question why are their practices are so abnormal relative to the other teams. This is a red flag.

Baseball America 2017 J2 Singings

Not Agressive 3 yr with ranks

Seeing Baltimore dead last three years in a row made me curious how the other four teams fared in previous seasons. It turns out the Mets, Athletics, and Blue Jays were fairly docile each year. I think it’s fair to expect the trend to continue going forward.

The Phillies, however, were average to aggressive in 2015-2016. Was 2017 an outlier? It’s hard to say. I took a look at how often individual players were sent the past three years to see if anything could be gleaned from it. For some reason the Phillies started running less with Galvis, Hernandez, Herrera, and Altherr. Hernandez had a poor success rate (56.67%) in 2016 so I can understand why his attempts were reduced. In my cursory, unthorough (is this even a word??) internet searches I found Herrera and Altherr both had leg injuries last year. Altherr’s was a hamstring tweak in mid-July, and Herrera went to the DL with a hamstring strain retroactive to mid-August. Alterr’s injury was pretty minor and Herrera didn’t miss time until the last six weeks of the season so neither of these seem explain the large declines in their attempt rates. I am stumped.

PHI 2015-2017

Att.SBO vs SS Rank Not AggressiveTo learn more about the team-level stolen base attempt rates, let’s see how they compare to each team’s weighted average sprint speed. (SS Weighted Avs) Not too surprisingly, the teams that attempted the least steals on a rate basis also were among the slowest in the league. The exception was the Phillies who ranked 13th. This chart begs the question, which came first: the stolen base attempt rate or the sprint speed? I think the answer is the sprint speed. If teams do not put a high value on stealing bases it would probably start with the GM and players they chose to acquire. Looking at the four teams in question, this appears to be the case. Either way having slow guys on the roster is not going to incentivize teams to run.

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Let’s take a look at each team’s stolen base attempt rates at a player-level to see if anything can be learned from them.

Baltimore Orioles – Whether right or wrong, Dan Duquette constructed their roster with a total apathy for speed. Only four players exceeded the average sprint speed mark of 27 ft/sec, although this is a bit deceiving because Machado, Mancini, Schoop, and Tejada were right around average. As a team, their weighted average sprint speed was third slowest in the majors. Adam Jones and Tim Beckham were probably capable of running more but were rarely sent. As long as the current regime is at the helm, don’t expect Orioles acquisitions to get many (or any) attempts unless they are burners. But it looks like Baltimore is averse to acquiring guys like that in the first place.

Oakland Athletics – Only Rajai Davis and Marcus Semien were sent at above average rates. The rest of the team didn’t steal. I was a bit surprised to see Matt Chapman highlighted as a plus runner (1 STD > AVE). He’s never been known as a base-stealer. It makes you wonder if he has a slow first step but fast max speed. Overall, it’s pretty clear Oakland does not place a high value on steals, but if they have a speed-oriented guy like Davis they will send him.

New York Mets – Four runners were sent less often than their sprint speeds might imply. If you are an Amed Rosario fantasy owner should you be concerned? At first glance his stolen base rate looks to be in line with his sprint speed. I wanted to check to see how his SB Att% compared to similar runners league-wide (within .2 ft/sec) and did so below. His SB Att% was smack in the middle of the seven player sample so I think it’s fair to say the Mets weren’t curtailing his attempts. Still, the Mets were non-aggressive as a whole.

Amed Rosario Speed Comps

Toronto Blue Jays – Another front office that does not care about speed, in fact, they were the slowest roster based on my weighted average sprint speed sheet. Richard Urena was the only player well above average. It’s worth noting, however, they were willing to send above average runners at rates in line with their speeds, they just didn’t employ many of them.

In totality, theses tables were not terribly enlightening. but if we can learn anything from them, non-aggressive teams are not a death knell for fast runners. Prolific base stealers will get their stolen bases regardless of organization.

11/11/17, 11/13/17 AFL Notes

AFL Notes 11/13/17

Kyle Regnault (LHP) New York Mets – Left-handed command specialist is the best four-word phrase I could come up with to describe Regnault. His fastball is not overpowering, but it can be effective due to his array of secondary offerings. He can run the fastball arm side in on the hands of right-handed hitters or straighten it. Regnault’s best pitch is a high 70s curveball with two plane movement and hefty depth. He’ll throw it either at the bottom of the zone or as a chase pitch. The curve gets a lot of swing and miss. Regnault also employs a low 80s slider. It’s not as good as the curve, but it serves as an effective change of pace. The fourth option is a low 80s changeup that has moderate depth and fade. He seemed to reserve this pitch for lefties and would run it away from them. Regnault’s overall arsenal works because he is able to command all four offerings and keep them down in the zone. I think he is polished and ready for a shot at middle relief in the majors.

AFL Notes 11/11/17

Adam Choplick (LHP) Texas Rangers – After losing out to Hafþór Júlíus Björnsson in the casting process for Game of Thrones’ “The Moutain”, Choplick resorted to his backup plan, a baseball career. He is a massive human, listed at 6’9” 250. With his colossal frame and long arms, one might expect natural plus extension, but his use of a high three-quarters arm slot undermines it. On the other hand, his height and arm slot allow Choplick to pitch with significant downhill plane. I can see this having divergent effects on his fastball and curveball. His high 70s curveball already has quality depth, which is augmented by the plane. Hitters should swing over the top or make contact on the top of the ball, meaning lots of ground balls. Alternatively, plane on his 92-95 mph fastball should result in fly balls. I think hitters will gauge its downward angle and respond with an upward-sloping bat path, allowing them to keep their bat in the zone longer. The uppercut path should result in more fly balls.

The curveball has been Choplick’s most-used secondary offering, and he commands it well. I think the command combined with its aforementioned depth make it a plus pitch. His slider was serviceable but below average. Choplick used it inside to jam right-handed hitters. Choplick has posted excellent numbers in the minors but has also been older than league averages. Next season he will be more age-appropriate in the Texas League, which should be revealing. Overall, Choplick looks like a pen piece. I think the stuff falls short of a closer profile, but middle relief or setup are possible outcomes.

10/23/17, 10/24/17 Arizona Fall League Notes

10/24/17 AFL Notes

Kevin Kramer (SS) Pittsburgh Pirates – It has been a popular baseball refrain in recent years that defensive range is becoming less important due to advent of the shift and defensive positioning. Kevin Kramer is the type of player who could benefit from this trend. I see a guy with an average or fringe average arm but quick transfers, smooth defensive actions, and solid hands. Various reports I have read view him as a guy who is likely to move to second base due to his lack of range. I am more optimistic on his odds of sticking at short. I think he has a chance to be a second division regular. The bat is better than most of his middle infield peers. He can protect the zone until the pitcher makes a mistake and then take advantage. The power is nothing to sneeze at either. I think it’s fringe average, which isn’t bad if he can stick at short.

10/23/17 AFL Notes

Luis Guillorme (2B) Mets – There has been a book on Guillorme in recent years. Great defense. Good bat to ball skills. Limited game power. And phenomenal hands. In my viewings this fall, I have seen nothing to dispel these evaluations. He made an excellent diving grab/throw in this game. He reminds me of Dustin Pedroia in some regards because his range is a tick below average, but anything within his range is essentially an automatic out. He will make eye-opening plays on the periphery of his range. Guillorme is a 40 runner. I have timed him around 4.4 from the left side. His universally lauded hands allow him to make frequent contact and limit his swing and miss. Despite the contact, his swing plane has remained flat, resulting in a lot of groundballs. With only two home runs in 2041 minor league plate appearances, it is hard to project him as any more than a bench guy and defensive replacement. The lack of power is not playable, especially in today’s homerun happy hitting environment. If he can make a change that results in better power output, he could be an everyday player. It just looks unlikely at this point because evaluators have been making similar comments regarding his swing plane for years.

10/11/17, 10/12/17 Arizona Fall League Notes

10/12/17 AFL Notes

DJ Snelten (LHP) Angels – Watching Snelten, I became fixated on his somewhat robotic delivery, which resembles a less extreme version of Alex Wood. He lifts his right leg to create deception as he shifts his center of mass forward toward the plate. Once everything is moving, his arm whips around from behind. His fastball is in the low 90s, and his second offering is a high 70s curveball. I think he profiles as an org guy.

10/11/17 AFL Notes

Scott Squier (RHP) Miami Marlins – The Marlins drafted Squier in 2014’s 16th round out of the University of Hawaii (Manoa). In a tweet I described Squier as a “kitchen sink guy”, which is quickly becoming one of my favorite cliches. There seem to be a lot of guys like this. They don’t have overpowering stuff, but they can keep hitters off balance by attacking with an array of pitches at different velocity bands and movements. The fast ball is fringey. It sits 90-92 and sometimes can get to 93. His slider is in the low 80s and may be his best pitch. The curve was 72-75 and was maybe a 45. On separate days I wrote in my notes “85 change (moves arm side)” and 88 “(2seam? moves arm side)”. It’s unclear to me whether or not these are different pitches. Either way, this feels like a swingman profile that will probably bounce back and forth from AAA to the majors and serve as organizational depth.

Miguel Del Pozo (LHP) Miami Marlins – Del Pozo primarily threw fastballs in this game. It was in the low 90s with a cutting action that ran in on RHHs that should result in some weak contact. Del Pozo also showed a curve in the high 70s that looked roughly average.